CrowdIntelResearch №212Event jackpot·Data as of July 10, 2026 · re-verified on send day
Peace was priced at 9 cents. Somebody bought $200K of it in February.
The Ukraine-ceasefire market sat at single-digit cents for months. A handful of accounts loaded up early and rode it to 98¢ when the news broke on May 9.
Wallet0xa53e…218d
Realized (complex)≈+$283KVladimirPooper
Entry9–37¢Feb–Apr 2026
Spike day98¢May 9 · $49.6M vol
Lead time~3 moopened before the news
01
The event
Polymarket’s “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?” market priced YES at 7–11¢ through May 7 — single-digit cents for months. On May 8 it stepped to 34¢; on May 9 it hit 98¢ on $49.6M of volume as the ceasefire news broke.
Daily YES price, “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?” — from full on-chain reconstruction.
Anyone holding YES from April was paid ~10x. The real question is who was buying at single-digit cents, weeks early — and how big.
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