CrowdIntelThe market said 30%. He hits 46% — over 1,181 bets.
One pseudonymous account beats the entry-price odds on world-news markets by 13.2 standard deviations. The odds of luck: about 1 in 10⁴⁰.
The anomaly
Across 1,181 resolved positions, this account wins 46.2% of bets whose entry prices average 30.0¢— the market said “30% likely” and he hits 46%. Against the entry-odds null the deviation is z = 13.2 (about 1 in 10⁴⁰). Of 102,263 wallets scanned with the same method, it is one of the most extreme deviations that survives every correction — the Bonferroni line for this scan is z ≥ 5, the same bar physics uses to declare a discovery.
A random bettor paying his prices wins 30% of the time. He wins 46%, over a thousand bets. Either the fastest, coldest reader of world news on the platform — or someone who knows which headlines are noise.