CrowdIntelResearch №001State of Polymarket · H1 2026·Data as of July 15, 2026 · re-verified on send day
The prediction market became a casino. The customers became machines.
Six months, $53B, 1.4 billion trades — 78% of them in markets that live less than a day, most of them placed by 15,752 machine accounts. The full macro picture, from every fill ever placed on Polymarket.
Lifetime volume$83BSept 2020 → Jul 2026
Fills1.7Bevery trade, on-chain
Wallets3.06Mever traded
Markets2.17Mever traded
01
The record year nobody described right
The common story says Polymarket peaked with the 2024 US election. The data says the opposite: the first half of 2026 alone did $53.0B — 64% of all volume in the platform’s history, seven and a half times the entire election year. 82% of every fill ever placed happened in 2026, and 89% of every market that has ever traded was created in it — about one new market every eight seconds.
election peak $2.6B · Nov 2024all-time peak $10.4B · Mar 2026Jul 2026 partial month
| Year | Volume | Fills | Wallets | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $8.82B | 58M | 645,427 | 19,497 |
| 2025 | $20.95B | 241M | 1,519,537 | 237,787 |
| 2026 (H1) | $53.03B | 1,402M | 1,886,578 | 1,918,043 |
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